UC San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines – NCAA Tournament Preview – March 20, 2025
UC San Diego and Michigan will meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 20. The game will take place at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. UC San Diego enters as the Big West champions with a 30-4 record, while Michigan holds a 25-9 mark after a strong Big Ten Tournament run.
This is UC San Diego’s first NCAA Tournament appearance after gaining eligibility following their move to Division I. Michigan is back in the tournament for the first time in three years under new head coach Dusty May. The Wolverines earned a No. 5 seed, a position that has seen frequent upsets by 12-seeds in past tournaments.
UC San Diego Preview – Can the Tritons Keep Rolling?
UC San Diego enters the tournament riding a 15-game win streak. The Tritons have not lost since January 18 and claimed the Big West Tournament title to secure their spot in March Madness. The team leans on guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who leads UC San Diego with 19.5 points per game.
Tyler McGhie is another key contributor, scoring 16.4 points per game and ranking among the nation’s leaders in three-point attempts. McGhie struggled from deep during the Big West Tournament but is capable of heating up quickly. Hayden Gray adds 11.2 points per game and is known for his strong defensive play, earning him a spot as a Naismith Defensive Player of the Year finalist.
UC San Diego ranks among the best in the country in ball security, averaging just 8.7 turnovers per game. Their ability to protect the basketball will be critical in limiting Michigan’s transition opportunities. The Tritons may rely on their matchup zone defense to counter Michigan’s size in the paint.
Michigan Preview – Will Goldin’s Size Dominate Inside?
Michigan earned the No. 5 seed after an impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines are led by Vladislav Goldin, who averages 16.7 points and has been their most consistent scoring option this season. Goldin transferred from Florida Atlantic along with coach Dusty May and has been a key piece in Michigan’s improved play.
Forward Danny Wolf averages 13.1 points and leads Michigan with 9.8 rebounds per game. Wolf’s presence in the paint has helped Michigan control the boards in most matchups. Tre Donaldson provides steady guard play, averaging 11.6 points and leading the team in assists.
Michigan has struggled at times with ball control, ranking near the bottom of the country in turnovers at 14.1 per game. Despite those issues, Michigan’s defense has been reliable, limiting opponents to 40.2% shooting. The Wolverines have hit the under in 10 of their last 26 games and often control the pace.
Key Matchup – UC San Diego’s Perimeter Shooting vs. Michigan’s Interior Defense
UC San Diego will need strong shooting from McGhie and Tait-Jones to counter Michigan’s size. The Wolverines have struggled to defend the three-point line at times this season, and the Tritons rank fifth nationally in three-pointers made per game. If McGhie can find his shooting touch early, UC San Diego could keep this game close.
Michigan’s edge may come from their rebounding advantage, as UC San Diego lacks size in the paint. Goldin and Wolf should have opportunities to dominate the glass and score inside. The Tritons will need to control tempo and take care of the ball to limit Michigan’s scoring chances.
Betting Prediction
Michigan enters as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total set at 141.5. UC San Diego’s strong perimeter shooting and ability to avoid turnovers makes them a dangerous underdog. Michigan’s size advantage should help control the boards, but their turnover struggles could keep the Tritons in the game.
UC San Diego’s win streak and efficient offense make them a solid pick to cover the spread. Expect a close game with Michigan surviving in the end.
Pick: UC San Diego +2.5 / Over 141.5
