Michigan State Spartans vs Iowa Hawkeyes – NCAA Basketball Preview – March 6, 2025

The Michigan State Spartans will visit the Iowa Hawkeyes on Thursday night at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in a key Big Ten matchup. Michigan State (24-5) has already clinched a share of the conference regular-season title but can secure it outright with a win. Iowa (15-14) is looking to finish the season strong and pull off an upset on their home court.

The Spartans enter the game on a five-game winning streak, including four straight victories over ranked opponents. They have been one of the most consistent teams in the Big Ten this season, using a deep rotation and a strong defensive presence. On the other hand, Iowa has struggled over the past month, dropping 10 of its last 13 games. The teams last met on February 20, when Michigan State secured a 78-71 victory at home. Iowa will look to flip the script and defend their home court in this rematch.

Michigan State Preview – Aiming for the Big Ten Title

Michigan State has been playing at a high level down the stretch, showing why they are one of the best teams in the conference. Their five-game winning streak has come against tough competition, with four of those victories coming against teams ranked in the AP Top 20. Freshman Jase Richardson has emerged as a key player, leading the team in scoring in three of those wins. His ability to create shots and control the tempo has made a difference for the Spartans.

Jaden Akins was the difference-maker in Michigan State’s most recent win, a 71-62 victory over Wisconsin. The senior guard poured in 19 points, his highest scoring output since early January. Michigan State has benefited from its depth, regularly using a 10-man rotation to keep players fresh. This depth allows them to maintain a high defensive intensity throughout the game, limiting opponents to just 67.8 points per contest.

Head coach Tom Izzo has emphasized that his team is still improving and has not yet peaked. With their strong defense, balanced offense, and experience in big games, the Spartans will be a tough opponent for Iowa. Their ability to control the boards and force turnovers will be key to coming out with a road victory.

Iowa Preview – Looking for a Home Upset

Iowa has had an up-and-down season, and their recent struggles have raised questions about their ability to compete with top-tier Big Ten teams. The Hawkeyes started the season 12-4 but have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games. Their most recent outing was a 68-57 road loss to Northwestern, a game in which they struggled to generate consistent offense. The team has had trouble maintaining defensive intensity, ranking near the bottom of the conference in opponent field goal percentage.

Senior Payton Sandfort has been Iowa’s most reliable offensive weapon, averaging 16.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. With forward Owen Freeman (16.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) out for the season due to finger surgery, Sandfort has had to carry more of the scoring load. Iowa has also struggled on the boards without Freeman, making it difficult for them to compete against physical teams like Michigan State.

Head coach Fran McCaffery has faced criticism during the team’s slump, but his players remain confident in his leadership. Sandfort recently defended McCaffery, emphasizing his passion for the program and the way he cares for his players. Iowa will look to channel that energy into a strong performance on Senior Night. If they can hit their outside shots and tighten up defensively, they have the potential to keep this game close.

Betting Prediction

Michigan State enters as a 6.5-point favorite, and they have been reliable on the road this season with a 7-2 away record. Iowa, in contrast, has struggled away from home but has been more competitive at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, holding a 12-5 home record. However, their recent struggles make them a risky bet against a dominant Spartans squad.

Michigan State’s defensive edge, rebounding ability, and depth should allow them to dictate the pace of the game. Iowa’s defensive issues and reliance on Sandfort to carry the scoring load could make it difficult for them to keep up. Expect the Spartans to pull away late and cover the spread in a physical, hard-fought battle.

Pick: Michigan State Spartans -6.5