Arkansas Razorbacks vs Kansas Jayhawks – NCAA Tournament Preview – March 20, 2025
Arkansas and Kansas will meet in a first-round NCAA Tournament matchup on Thursday, March 20. The game will take place at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island. Arkansas comes in with a 20-13 record, while Kansas holds a 21-12 mark for the season.
The Razorbacks edged the Jayhawks 72-71 in their last meeting during the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Kansas struggled down the stretch, going 5-6 in its final 11 games. Arkansas has won 9 of its last 13 games after a tough start to SEC play.
Arkansas Preview – Can Fland’s Return Spark the Offense?
Arkansas is set to have freshman guard Boogie Fland return after missing 16 games due to a thumb injury. Fland played a key role in Arkansas’ preseason exhibition win over Kansas, scoring 22 points with six steals. Coach John Calipari expects Fland to play limited minutes but believes he can make an impact.
During Fland’s absence, Arkansas leaned on D.J. Wagner to lead the offense. Wagner has been a consistent scorer but has faced defensive pressure without Fland in the lineup. Trevon Brazile has also been effective, averaging double-digit points and contributing on the boards.
Arkansas has been inconsistent defensively but has shown improvement. They allow 69.3 points per game and have been strong at forcing turnovers. The Razorbacks have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games and are 4-6 away from home this season.
Arkansas has been effective in higher-scoring games recently. They have hit the over in six of their last seven contests and have been strong in first-half scoring. The Razorbacks may look to push the tempo to create transition opportunities, especially with Fland back in the rotation.
Kansas Preview – Can Dickinson Carry the Load?
Kansas relies heavily on Hunter Dickinson, who averages 17.6 points and 10 rebounds per game. Dickinson has scored at least 20 points in 11 games this season. He leads a Kansas team that has struggled in recent weeks, finishing 5-6 in their final 11 games.
Guard Dajuan Harris is a steady playmaker who scored 16 points in Kansas’ last game. He provides stability in the backcourt and works well alongside K.J. Adams. Kansas has been strong at home but has struggled on the road with a 4-8 record.
The Jayhawks have been solid defensively, holding opponents to 39.9% shooting. Kansas has hit the under in 21 of their last 35 games, often controlling the pace and keeping scores low. Kansas lost to Arkansas in last year’s tournament but will look to reverse that result here.
Kansas has been especially strong in first halves this season, ranking sixth nationally in first-half scoring defense. Their ability to start games strong has been key, and they may rely on that again to build an early lead against Arkansas.
Key Matchup – Hunter Dickinson vs. Arkansas Defense
Hunter Dickinson’s presence in the paint will be critical for Kansas. Arkansas ranks just 225th nationally in rebounding and has struggled to slow strong post players this season. Dickinson’s ability to score inside and draw fouls could make a big difference in this game.
On the other side, Arkansas may counter with a faster pace and smaller lineups. Trevon Brazile will need to be active on the glass, and D.J. Wagner will have to attack Kansas’ perimeter defenders to create open shots. If Arkansas can turn this game into an up-tempo battle, it may improve their chances.
Trends to Watch
Arkansas has been strong for bettors recently, covering the spread in 9 of their last 13 games. They’ve also hit the over in 6 of their last 7 contests. Kansas has been the opposite, with the under hitting in 21 of their last 35 games.
Kansas has struggled in neutral-site games this season, posting a 2-4 record away from their home arena. Arkansas, despite a losing road record, has performed well in tournament-style settings under Calipari. This game could come down to who handles the pressure best in a close contest.
Betting Prediction
Kansas enters as a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 146.5. Arkansas has been playing better lately, especially with Boogie Fland back in the rotation. Kansas leans on Dickinson, but Arkansas’ athleticism could cause problems.
Expect a competitive game, but Kansas’ experience and Dickinson’s presence in the paint should give them the edge. Arkansas may struggle to keep pace if Fland plays limited minutes as expected. Kansas has hit the under frequently, and their ability to control tempo may limit scoring opportunities for Arkansas.
Pick: Kansas -5.5 / Under 146.5
