Watching and monitoring the line movements, betting trends, and money flow of the game you are wagering on is a fantastic way to inform your bet and improve your chances of cashing a ticket. There is so much information available these days it’s important to utilize it as much as possible to be sure you are placing the best wager you can.
Line movements are the best betting tools used by the professional handicappers to find the value they want in order to be successful game in, game out. It’s very important to know where the public money is. This will tell you where the smart money is as well as who is chasing. There are very simple strategies to employ to use this information to your advantage and win as much as possible.
Wager Against the Public
The first strategy is using the above mentioned information to wager against the public. This theory is based on the idea that the oddsmakers always win and the gamblers always lose. That’s how those buildings in Vegas get so tall afterall. So, whichever team the public is loading up on, go the other way. It’s in the best interest of the sportsbook to have the money as equal as possible on both sides of the wager since they are collecting the juice.
When the gambling public loads up on one side, sportsbooks and oddsmakers are usually forced to move lines to attract money on the other team and reduce their exposure and risk. If there is a huge influx of cash on one side, the gambling marketplace may act a little irrationally and you can see as much as an extra one or two points on the wager you were going to place anyway. This is why it’s important to wait as long as you can before placing your wager to see where the line moves and the money goes.
Follow the money to get the good number. This theory is applicable to every major US sport, including NCAA football and basketball. However, keep in mind, this is a long play where you can see as much as a 5% increase in your winning percentage over an extended period of time. It takes consistency, discipline, and some faith to make it work as some of the wagers you make will go against your judgement. But if you stick with it, betting with the house pays off.
Reverse Line Movement Strategy
The second strategy is known as reverse line movement and takes a little more time and dedication but can be well worth your time. This strategy looks for all of the betting line movement that completely contradicts the public betting trend percentages. For example, let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles are -7 point favorites versus the New England Patriots.
All of the betting trends and information we have are telling us that 85% of the wagers being placed are on the Philadelphia Eagles. However, the line moves against Philadelphia, making them a -6 point favorite. This is a sure sign that large wagers (better know as the “smart” or “sharp” money, as some may say) have been made by an individual or betting syndicate, has come in on the New England Patriots. To use this information, you would immediately search for a different sportsbook (it’s always wise to have multiple accounts open and ready to play) still offering the Patriots at +7, and then quickly place that wager.
This technique is very successful but requires patience, multiple accounts, and quick timing. It’s basically a follow the leader bet. Using the betting trend information to see where a major player makes a wager, assume they know what they are doing, and playing the way they play. This takes a little more digging into the information as well as a little more time watching but it can be wildly successful.
Wait and See Method
The final strategy is a wait-and-see method. This takes into account the scoring of the particular sport you are wagering on. Football has scores seen more times than not, 14-10, 17-3, 31-24, for example because of the value of touchdowns, field goals, and safeties. Basketball has three-pointers, two-pointers, and free throws. This is all important to consider when placing watching the line movement.
There is a big difference between seven points and seven and a half. That half point, or “hook,” can be the difference between a win, a loss, or a push. Getting 7.5 is better than getting 7. Getting 3.5 is better than getting 3. Waiting to see if line moves to a hook and then grabbing it is a solid wager because you’ve gotten the number you wanted, plus a little more insurance.
Every line moves. Even the moneyline will move. It is important to note these line changes and use them to your advantage. A smart wager has considered all the information. From who is the starting quarterback to where the money is. The ability to use the information to your advantage can be the difference between breaking even and winning big, so remember, watch the lines, inform your bet, and cash tickets.
