Houston and Duke will meet on Saturday, April 5 in the second Final Four semifinal at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The game tips off at 8:49 PM ET and features two No. 1 seeds. Houston comes in at 34-4 and won the Big 12. Duke is 35-3 and won the ACC.
This will be a rematch of a low-scoring battle last March, when Duke edged Houston 54-51. The Cougars have the top-ranked defense in the country, while Duke has the top-ranked offense. The winner will move on to face either Florida or Auburn in the national championship game.
Houston Preview – Defense Has Been the Key All Season
Houston allows just 62.6 points per game, ranking among the top defensive teams in the country. Opponents are shooting only 38.5% from the field and just 30.8% from three. In the tournament, Houston has held teams to 37.6% shooting overall and just 24% from deep.
L.J. Cryer leads Houston with 15.4 points per game. He scored 17 in their last game and is the main shot creator on offense. Emanuel Sharp adds 12.7 points per game and had 16 in the Elite Eight. Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler round out a group of starters who all contribute double-digit scoring.
J’Wan Roberts leads the team in rebounding and brings leadership as a fifth-year player. Houston is 10-0 on the road and 16-1 at home this season. The Cougars have hit the moneyline in 30 of their last 31 games and are 20-16-2 against the spread overall.
Duke Preview – Balanced Attack Behind Flagg and Proctor
Duke comes into this matchup averaging 74.0 points per game. They shoot 45.4% from the field and a nation-best 39.7% from three. In the tournament, they’ve been even better, averaging 91.8 points per game and shooting 56.2% from the field.
Freshman Cooper Flagg leads the team with 18.9 points per game. He’s projected to be the top NBA draft pick. Tyrese Proctor adds 12.5 points and runs the point. Kon Knueppel is also a big scorer and had 21 in their last game. Duke has five starters averaging over 8 points per game.
The Blue Devils are 17-0 at home and 10-1 on the road this season. They’ve covered the spread in 25 of their last 38 games and have one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the country. Duke also has veteran experience with Sion James and depth behind Khaman Maluach in the frontcourt.
Betting Prediction
Duke is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 136.5. The game will likely come down to whether Duke’s top offense can score enough against Houston’s elite defense. Houston will try to slow the tempo and limit open shots from Flagg, Proctor, and Knueppel.
Houston has been strong against the spread in big games and will look to keep it low scoring again. Duke’s offense is more explosive, but Houston’s defense is tough to crack. Final score prediction: Duke 66, Houston 61. Houston covers, and the total stays under.
Pick: Houston Cougars +5.5 over the Duke Blue Devils in this battle on Saturday. We expect a great game. A great that could and should come down to the end. In the end, the Cougars cover. Enjoy the game and best of luck!
