Houston Cougars vs Purdue Boilermakers – NCAA Tournament Preview – March 28, 2025
Houston and Purdue meet in the Sweet 16 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Tip is set for 10:09 PM ET on Friday night. Houston enters with a 32-4 record as the top seed in the Midwest Region, while Purdue is 24-11 and the No. 4 seed.
Houston has won 15 straight games and owns the top defense in the country. Purdue is back in familiar territory after last year’s Final Four run. This game features two of the top three winning programs in college basketball over the past three seasons.
Houston Preview – Defense Leading the Way
Houston is giving up just 58.4 points per game, which ranks No. 1 nationally. They’ve held teams to 38.4% shooting and only 30.6% from three. In their second-round win over Gonzaga, the Cougars allowed just 76 points and got 30 from L.J. Cryer.
Cryer is Houston’s leading scorer at 15.8 points per game. J’Wan Roberts adds 10.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, while freshman JoJo Tugler is coming off an 11-rebound game. Milos Uzan leads the team in assists with 3.4 per game and added 8 more in the Gonzaga win.
Houston is 10-0 in road games and 16-1 at home this year. They average 77.7 points per game and shoot 48.8% from the floor. The Cougars also rank top 10 in rebounding defense, assists, and field goal defense. They’ve covered the first-half spread in 20 of 37 games this season.
Emmanuel Sharp gives Houston another scoring option, averaging 12.3 points and shooting over 40% from three. Jamal Shead’s ability to pressure opposing guards fuels the defense. With Cryer’s shooting, Roberts’ toughness inside, and a deep rotation, Houston brings one of the most complete rosters left in the field.
Purdue Preview – Experienced Lineup Seeks Another Run
Purdue has kept its starting five together from the beginning, with all five players starting their college careers at Purdue. Braden Smith is the leader, posting 10 points and 5 assists in the second-round win. He’s two assists away from joining Ja Morant in a rare statistical club with 500 points, 300 assists, and 150 rebounds in a season.
Trey Kaufman-Renn had 22 points and 15 rebounds in the last game, and Fletcher Loyer added 15. The Boilermakers shoot 48.8% from the field and 38.5% from three. Purdue averages 77.7 points per game and gives up 69.4, ranking in the top third nationally on both ends.
Purdue is 14-2 at home and 5-6 in road games. They have covered the spread in 22 of 38 games and hit the first-half moneyline in 26 of 38. Coach Matt Painter is seeking his 12th 25-win season and a second straight Elite Eight appearance.
Camden Heide and Lance Jones add depth on the wings, while Caleb Furst brings energy and rebounding off the bench. The Boilermakers are strong in ball movement, ranking top 50 in assists, and commit just over 10 turnovers per game. With size across the front line and a backcourt that controls pace, Purdue is well built to challenge Houston’s pressure defense.
Betting Prediction
Houston is favored by 8.5 points with a total of 131.5. This game is expected to be low scoring with Houston’s top-ranked defense controlling the pace. Purdue will need to shoot well from deep and keep the Cougars off the offensive glass.
Houston’s defense gives it the edge, but Purdue’s experience and recent tournament success should help keep things close. Final score prediction: Houston 68, Purdue 62. The Cougars should win, but the Boilermakers are the pick to cover.
Pick: Purdue +8.5
