North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs – NCAA Tournament Preview – March 18, 2025
The North Carolina Tar Heels face the San Diego State Aztecs in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio. North Carolina enters the game with a 22-13 record, while San Diego State holds a 21-9 mark. The winner will advance to the Round of 64 and face a higher-seeded opponent in the next round.
North Carolina barely secured a spot in the tournament, landing as the last at-large team selected. San Diego State has been strong defensively all season and will look to slow down the Tar Heels’ scoring attack. This game marks the first meeting between these programs since 1990.
North Carolina Preview – Tar Heels Rely on Offense
The Tar Heels have relied heavily on their offense throughout the season, averaging 80.8 points per game, ranking 24th nationally. RJ Davis leads the team with 17 points per game and will be crucial for North Carolina’s success. The Tar Heels also get key contributions from Elliot Cadeau (9.5 ppg, 6 assists) and Ven-Allen Lubin (8.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg).
North Carolina is efficient from the floor, shooting 47.6% overall. They average 14.6 assists per game and limit turnovers, which has helped keep their offense running smoothly. On defense, the Tar Heels have struggled at times, allowing 63.6 points per game. Improving their defensive intensity will be key in this matchup.
North Carolina has been inconsistent down the stretch, but their experience and offensive talent make them dangerous. The Tar Heels have been strong in first halves, winning 26 of their last 38 first halves this season.
San Diego State Preview – Defense Drives Success
The Aztecs are known for their defense, ranking 3rd nationally in opponent field goal percentage (37.8%) and allowing just 63.6 points per game. Guard Nick Boyd leads the team with 13.4 points per game, while Miles Byrd and BJ Davis add additional scoring support. Byrd averages 12.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game.
San Diego State’s strength comes in controlling pace and limiting opponents’ shot quality. The Aztecs thrive in low-scoring games and will need their defense to disrupt North Carolina’s fast-paced offense. Rim protector Magoon Gwath is expected to return after missing nearly a month with a knee injury, giving the Aztecs additional size inside.
San Diego State has struggled on offense, shooting just 44.4% from the floor and 66.6% from the free-throw line. Their ability to control tempo will be crucial in slowing down North Carolina’s offensive attack.
Betting Prediction
North Carolina enters this game as a 4.5-point favorite with a total set at 142.5. The Tar Heels have hit the first-half moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games, showing their ability to start fast. Meanwhile, San Diego State’s defensive strength makes them a strong second-half team when they can slow down the pace.
Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out style game that favors the under. San Diego State’s defense should keep things close, but North Carolina’s offensive firepower is likely to give them the edge late.
Pick: North Carolina -4.5 / Under 142.5
Trends to Watch
- North Carolina: The Tar Heels have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games.
- North Carolina: North Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 38 games.
- San Diego State: The Aztecs have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games.
- San Diego State: San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games.
What’s Next
The winner of this First Four matchup will advance to the NCAA Tournament Round of 64. Both teams are fighting to extend their postseason run and keep their title hopes alive.
