Northwestern Wildcats vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers – Big Ten Tournament Preview – March 12, 2025

Northwestern and Minnesota will meet Wednesday afternoon in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Northwestern enters the game at 16-15, while Minnesota sits at 15-16. Both teams finished with identical 7-13 conference records and closed the regular season on two-game losing streaks.

Northwestern defeated Minnesota 75-63 on Feb. 25, with Nick Martinelli scoring 29 points to lead the Wildcats. Dawson Garcia scored 26 points for Minnesota in that matchup and will be key for the Golden Gophers in this win-or-go-home contest. The winner will advance to face fifth-seeded Wisconsin in the next round.

Northwestern Preview – Martinelli Carries the Load

Nick Martinelli has been the driving force for Northwestern this season, averaging 20.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. He scored 28 points in the Wildcats’ recent loss to Maryland and has delivered 20 or more points in three of his last four games.

Injuries have been a problem for Northwestern. The Wildcats are without key players Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach, leaving Martinelli as the clear scoring leader. Ty Berry has added some scoring support, but the Wildcats will need better production from their role players to advance.

Northwestern’s offense has been inconsistent this season, averaging 72.7 points per game while allowing 69.6 points. The Wildcats rely heavily on Martinelli for offense, especially since they rank 202nd in the nation in three-point shooting at 33.7%. For Northwestern to succeed, they will need improved perimeter shooting and consistent rebounding on the defensive end.

Minnesota Preview – Garcia Must Deliver

Dawson Garcia leads the Golden Gophers in scoring and rebounding, averaging 18.4 points and 6.8 boards per game. He scored 19 points in Minnesota’s overtime loss at Rutgers and remains the team’s key offensive threat.

Garcia’s recent struggles have coincided with Minnesota’s recent losing streak, but his performance against Rutgers showed signs of a return to form. Minnesota’s offensive success often hinges on Garcia’s ability to score inside and control the glass.

Minnesota’s defensive issues have been a major concern. The Golden Gophers are allowing 69.6 points per game and rank 280th in defensive rebounding. Their perimeter defense has also been a problem, giving up 34.7% shooting from three-point range. For Minnesota to win, they will need to improve defensively and limit second-chance points for Northwestern.

Key Matchup – Martinelli vs. Garcia

The matchup between Martinelli and Garcia will likely determine the outcome. Martinelli torched Minnesota for 29 points in their previous meeting, and Garcia will need to match that output for the Gophers to keep pace. Both teams have struggled to find secondary scoring, meaning the star players could play a huge role in deciding the game.

Minnesota’s supporting cast, including players like Frank Mitchell and Elijah Hawkins, will need to contribute offensively to provide balance. Meanwhile, Northwestern’s Ty Berry and Brooks Barnhizer’s absence places extra pressure on Martinelli to deliver another strong outing.

Betting Prediction

Northwestern won the previous matchup by 12 points behind a big game from Martinelli. Minnesota’s inconsistency, combined with defensive issues, makes it hard to trust the Golden Gophers. Garcia’s scoring ability could keep things close, but Northwestern’s ability to slow the pace and rely on Martinelli gives them the advantage.

Both teams have been involved in several low-scoring games this season, and the trends point toward another slow-paced matchup. Expect the Wildcats to win and cover the spread while the total stays under.

Pick: Northwestern -2.5 / Under 127.5

Trends to Watch

• Northwestern: Has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI).
• Northwestern: Has hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI).
• Minnesota: Has hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 34 games (+12.80 Units / 6% ROI).
• Minnesota: Has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI).
• Head-to-Head: The total has gone under in three of the last four meetings between these teams.

What’s Next

The winner of this game will advance to face fifth-seeded Wisconsin in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin finished the season with a 23-8 record and is among the favorites to win the tournament. For Minnesota or Northwestern to pull off an upset, they will need improved defensive play and consistent scoring from their key players.